The Balkans on the Brink: Kosovo, Serbia, and the West
Concise briefings on Banjska’s legacy, Serbia’s militarisation, and Kosovo as Britain’s real frontline against Moscow.
Welcome to The Situation Room Briefings.
This is where every debate begins: with facts, not noise. Our Briefings are concise, neutral context reports drawn from expert analysis and original reporting. They establish the shared “ground truth” behind each of Europe’s most urgent questions, so when the debate starts, everyone begins on the same page.
Today marks our inaugural debate: “The Balkans on the Brink: Kosovo, Serbia, and the West.” Two years after the Banjska attack in northern Kosovo, questions of accountability, militarisation, and Western policy remain unresolved.
These three briefs, in English and Albanian, provide the essential background: Serbia’s trajectory since Banjska, Britain’s real frontline against Moscow, and how regional silence has shaped the balance of power.
Serbia After Banjska: Guns, Gas, and Russian Leverage
Michael Sheppard & Vudi Xhymshiti, Gunpowder Chronicles — Sep 24, 2025.
Two years after the 2023 Banjska attack in northern Kosovo, Serbia has emerged more militarised, energy-bound to Russia, and reliant on Moscow’s intelligence support, while Western responses remain fragmented.
On accountability, Kosovo indicted 45 suspects, including Milan Radoicic, for organising the Banjska assault that killed police officer Afrim Bunjaku. Belgrade has not extradited him. Western governments have issued statements and sanctions designations, but neither the EU, UK nor US has published a dedicated investigative report.
Security has been recalibrated. NATO reinforced its KFOR mission, with British troops regularly rotated to deter further violence. Serbia, meanwhile, expanded its arsenal: buying French Rafale jets, integrating Chinese FK-3 air defences, and adding Russian-origin Mi-35 helicopters, while continuing energy dependence through Gazprom contracts. This eclectic procurement both maintains ties with Moscow and Beijing while hedging with select Western purchases.
Diplomatically, President Vucic continues to balance optics. Serbia voted for a UN Ukraine resolution in February 2025 before retracting support. Belgrade has also deepened security links with Moscow: Serbia’s deputy prime minister thanked Russian intelligence for protest management, while the controversial Russia-Serbia “Humanitarian Center” in Niš remains a concern in Brussels.
For the UK, Serbia’s posture presents three risks: direct exposure of British soldiers in KFOR, weakened sanctions enforcement due to Serbian energy ties, and intelligence vulnerabilities on NATO’s periphery. EU institutions have sharpened their language, linking Serbia’s accountability failures and Russia/China ties to enlargement risks.
Key developments to watch include whether Belgrade extradites suspects, how Rafale deliveries shift leverage with Paris, and whether the EU or UK moves from declaratory pressure to conditionality.
Kosovo, Not Serbia, Is Britain’s Front Line Against Moscow
Vudi Xhymshiti, Gunpowder Chronicles — Sep 24, 2025
This article argues that the lessons of Banjska are not limited to Kosovo but to Europe’s strategic landscape: Ukraine is Russia’s eastern front of conquest; Kosovo is its western laboratory of infiltration.
Serbia, under President Vucic, is described as firmly tied into Moscow’s energy infrastructure, Beijing’s arms supply, and Russian intelligence. Belgrade’s claims of “balancing” between East and West are portrayed as tactical theatre. French Rafales or EU membership overtures are presented as bargaining chips, while structural dependence on Russia and China deepens.
Kosovo, by contrast, is positioned as the only fully Western-aligned state in the Western Balkans, simultaneously defending its sovereignty and confronting hybrid threats: disinformation, psychological warfare, and media controlled by Belgrade. The article draws parallels with Britain’s shutdown of RT and Sputnik after 2022, urging similar action in Kosovo to curb hostile influence operations.
The piece highlights the upcoming Western Balkans Conference in London (Oct 22, 2025) as a pivotal moment. It calls on the UK to end indulgence of Belgrade’s “double game” and reaffirm Kosovo as Britain’s natural ally, drawing a parallel with Tony Blair’s 1999 intervention. For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the choice is framed as whether to apply sanctions and conditions or risk repeating the appeasement that preceded Russia’s seizure of Crimea.
The article warns that British soldiers in KFOR, markets vulnerable to sanctions leakage, and domestic politics exposed to disinformation mean this is not “distant geopolitics.” Britain must act decisively, recognising Kosovo as the real frontline of Europe’s confrontation with Moscow.
Dy vjet pas Banjës, kufiri i padukshëm i Evropës
Vudi Xhymshiti, Gunpowder Chronicles (Albanian) — Sep 24, 2025
Written in Albanian, this article situates Kosovo at the centre of Europe’s struggle against Russian influence, while criticising Serbia’s trajectory and Albania’s political stance.
It argues that two years after Banjska, Serbia has chosen alignment with Moscow and Beijing, while continuing to present neutrality as a façade. Kosovo, meanwhile, stands largely alone in resisting Belgrade-backed paramilitaries and Russian-style disinformation campaigns.
Britain is urged to treat Kosovo as a frontline ally, as it once did in 1999, while Albania under Prime Minister Edi Rama is accused of abandoning its historical role as Kosovo’s defender. Specific moments cited include:
Silence on the 2018 partition plan,
The “Mini-Schengen” initiative excluding Kosovo,
Weak responses to the 2023 Banjska attack,
Independent proposals on Serb-majority municipalities bypassing Prishtina, and
The appointment of controversial figures in Albanian intelligence.
This trajectory is presented as enabling Serbia’s narrative in Brussels and Washington. By contrast, Kosovo is faulted for failing to counter hostile propaganda networks internally, leaving its democratic space vulnerable.
The piece concludes that Kosovo now carries the burden of Europe’s invisible frontier, while Albania risks complicity through silence and accommodation. For the author, the true European border runs not through Warsaw or Lviv, but through Leposaviq, Zvečan, Mitrovica, and Banjska.